diff --git a/cmd/mesh-controller/checks.go b/cmd/mesh-controller/checks.go
index 4dd4678..6a7c5e7 100644
--- a/cmd/mesh-controller/checks.go
+++ b/cmd/mesh-controller/checks.go
@@ -22,7 +22,8 @@ import (
 //
 // **The mesh's module graph decides, not the repository.** The controller holds the graph — every module,
 // the repository and directory it is built from — and maps the pull request's changed paths onto it by
-// the rule the merge handler and the release planner use (whatTheMergeTouched, issue 280): **a changed file
+// the planner's own answer (reachOfMerge, touchedBy — the one place a changed file is mapped onto modules,
+// for the merge handler, the release planner, the merge gate and this check; issue 280): **a changed file
 // touches exactly the modules whose build reads it** — a module's own directory (the whole repository for
 // one built from its root), or a repository its recipe packages. A file no build reads — a script at the
 // root, a README — touches no module. A directory the change adds a module.json in, which the graph does
@@ -52,14 +53,20 @@ const noMergeCheck = "the repository declares no merge-check.sh: none of its own
 var coreModules = map[string]string{"mesh-controller": "mesh-controller", "mesh-host": "mesh-host",
 	"node-tools": "mesh-tools", "nats": "mesh-catalog"}
 
-// checkScope is what a pull request touches of the mesh's graph.
+// checkScope is what a pull request reaches of the mesh's graph, as the planner reckons it.
 type checkScope struct {
-	// Modules are the graph's modules built from the repository into the pull request's base that the
-	// change touches, sorted; New the directories it adds a module in that the graph does not hold.
-	Modules []string
-	New     []string
-	// Manifests are their manifests in the change's tree.
+	// Modules are the modules a merge of the change would move itself — built from the repository into
+	// the pull request's base and reading a changed file, or packaging the repository's source — and
+	// Dependents those the plan would build after them; New the directories it adds a module in.
+	Modules    []string
+	Dependents []string
+	New        []string
+	// Manifests are the moved modules' and the new ones' manifests in the change's tree.
 	Manifests []string
+	// Width is how many modules a merge would build, in how many tiers; Unread the changed files no
+	// module's build reads.
+	Width, Tiers int
+	Unread       []string
 	// Mesh says the repository is the mesh's: modules are built from it on some branch, its owner is the
 	// core's, or the change adds a module to it.
 	Mesh bool
@@ -71,13 +78,35 @@ type checkScope struct {
 
 func (s checkScope) gated() bool { return len(s.Modules)+len(s.New) > 0 }
 
-// pullScope maps a pull request onto the mesh's module graph.
-func pullScope(p link.PullUpdated, entries []inventory.Entry, read map[string][]inventory.ReadRepository) checkScope {
+// pullScope is what a pull request reaches: **the planner's own answer** (reachOfMerge), asked as if the
+// head were merged into the base — never a mapping of its own, so a change to what a merge touches
+// changes what is checked with it (novox/hq ADR 0238).
+func pullScope(p link.PullUpdated, entries []inventory.Entry, read map[string][]inventory.ReadRepository,
+	edges []inventory.Edge) checkScope {
 	m := link.SourceMoved{Owner: p.Owner, Repo: p.Repo, Base: p.Base, CloneURL: p.CloneURL, Commit: p.Commit,
-		Paths: p.Paths, PathsTruncated: p.PathsTruncated, ModuleDirs: p.ModuleDirs, ModuleDirsSaid: p.ModuleDirsSaid}
-	var s checkScope
-	var from []inventory.Entry
-	known := map[string]bool{}
+		Paths: p.Paths, PathsTruncated: p.PathsTruncated, Removed: p.Removed, ModuleDirs: p.ModuleDirs,
+		ModuleDirsSaid: p.ModuleDirsSaid}
+	r := reachOfMerge(m, entries, read, edges)
+	s := checkScope{Modules: r.Moved(), Dependents: r.Dependents(), New: r.Added, Unread: r.Unread,
+		Width: len(r.Plan.Modules), Tiers: len(r.Plan.Tiers)}
+	for _, e := range append(append([]inventory.Entry{}, r.Touched...), r.Deleted...) {
+		s.Manifests = append(s.Manifests, path.Join(strings.Trim(e.Source.Path, "/"), moduleManifestFile))
+		switch e.Manifest.Module {
+		case "mesh-controller":
+			s.Judge = link.JudgeSelf
+		case "mesh-host":
+			if s.Judge == "" {
+				s.Judge = link.JudgeValidator
+			}
+		}
+	}
+	for _, d := range r.Added {
+		s.Manifests = append(s.Manifests, path.Join(d, moduleManifestFile))
+	}
+	sort.Strings(s.Manifests)
+	s.Manifests = slices.Compact(s.Manifests)
+
+	// Whose repository it is, for how it is cloned and whether its own check is the mesh's to run.
 	owners := map[string]bool{}
 	for i, e := range entries {
 		if e.Provided {
@@ -88,77 +117,11 @@ func pullScope(p link.PullUpdated, entries []inventory.Entry, read map[string][]
 				owners[owner] = true
 			}
 		}
-		if !sameRepository(e.Source.Repository, m) {
-			continue
-		}
-		s.Mesh = true
-		known[strings.Trim(e.Source.Path, "/")] = true
-		if s.From == nil {
+		if sameRepository(e.Source.Repository, m) && s.From == nil {
 			s.From = &entries[i]
 		}
-		if sourceIs(e.Source, m) {
-			from = append(from, e)
-		}
-	}
-	touched := map[string]inventory.Entry{}
-	if len(from) > 0 {
-		for _, e := range whatTheMergeTouched(from, entries, m) {
-			touched[e.Manifest.Module] = e
-		}
-	}
-	// A module whose build packages source from this repository's branch is touched by any change to it.
-	for _, e := range entries {
-		if !e.Provided && readsFrom(read[e.Manifest.Module], m) {
-			touched[e.Manifest.Module] = e
-		}
-	}
-	for name, e := range touched {
-		s.Modules = append(s.Modules, name)
-		if sameRepository(e.Source.Repository, m) {
-			s.Manifests = append(s.Manifests, path.Join(strings.Trim(e.Source.Path, "/"), "module.json"))
-		}
-		switch name {
-		case "mesh-controller":
-			s.Judge = link.JudgeSelf
-		case "mesh-host":
-			if s.Judge == "" {
-				s.Judge = link.JudgeValidator
-			}
-		}
-	}
-	// A module the graph does not hold yet, in a directory the head says holds one — or at the root.
-	for _, d := range saidModuleDirs(m) {
-		if !known[d] {
-			s.New = append(s.New, d)
-			s.Manifests = append(s.Manifests, d+"/module.json")
-		}
-	}
-	// And, said or not, a manifest the change adds or moves in a directory the graph does not know.
-	for _, changed := range p.Paths {
-		changed = strings.Trim(changed, "/")
-		if path.Base(changed) != "module.json" {
-			continue
-		}
-		d := path.Dir(changed)
-		if d == "." {
-			d = ""
-		}
-		if !known[d] {
-			if d == "" {
-				d = "."
-			}
-			s.New = append(s.New, d)
-			s.Manifests = append(s.Manifests, changed)
-		}
-	}
-	sort.Strings(s.Modules)
-	sort.Strings(s.New)
-	s.New = slices.Compact(s.New)
-	sort.Strings(s.Manifests)
-	s.Manifests = slices.Compact(s.Manifests)
-	if owners[strings.ToLower(p.Owner)] || s.gated() {
-		s.Mesh = true
 	}
+	s.Mesh = s.From != nil || owners[strings.ToLower(p.Owner)] || s.gated()
 	return s
 }
 
@@ -182,7 +145,11 @@ func (f following) PullUpdated(ctx context.Context, p link.PullUpdated) error {
 	if err != nil {
 		return err
 	}
-	scope := pullScope(p, entries, read)
+	edges, err := inv.Dependencies(ctx)
+	if err != nil {
+		return err
+	}
+	scope := pullScope(p, entries, read, edges)
 	direct := link.Checked{Owner: p.Owner, Repo: p.Repo, Number: p.Number, Commit: p.Commit,
 		ID: link.NewBuildID(time.Now()), Verdict: "pass", Summary: noModuleTouched,
 		Gate: &link.CheckLayer{Verdict: "pass", Summary: noModuleTouched}}
@@ -213,7 +180,9 @@ func (f following) PullUpdated(ctx context.Context, p link.PullUpdated) error {
 	}
 	what := "its own merge-check.sh alone: " + noModuleTouched
 	if scope.gated() {
-		what = "the gate over " + strings.Join(append(append([]string{}, scope.Modules...), scope.New...), ", ")
+		what = fmt.Sprintf("the gate over %s (a merge would build %d module(s) in %d tier(s))",
+			strings.Join(append(append([]string{}, scope.Modules...), prefixedAll("new:", scope.New)...), ", "),
+			scope.Width, scope.Tiers)
 	}
 	fmt.Printf("%s/%s#%d (%.8s): asked %s to check it before it merges — %s — as %s\n", p.Owner, p.Repo, p.Number,
 		p.Commit, seat, what, request.ID)
@@ -289,8 +258,8 @@ func checkRequestFor(ctx context.Context, open *stores, p link.PullUpdated, scop
 		Seats:      seatBases(ctx),
 		Source:     sourceOnSeat(source),
 		Check: &link.CheckRequest{Owner: p.Owner, Repo: p.Repo, Number: p.Number, Base: p.Base,
-			Paths: p.Paths, Beside: beside, Modules: scope.Modules, New: scope.New, Manifests: scope.Manifests,
-			Judge: scope.Judge},
+			Paths: p.Paths, Beside: beside, Modules: scope.Modules, Dependents: scope.Dependents, New: scope.New,
+			Manifests: scope.Manifests, Judge: scope.Judge},
 	}, nil
 }
 
@@ -354,6 +323,9 @@ func checkedOf(result link.BuildResult) link.Checked {
 	if result.Checked != nil && c.Gate != nil && len(c.Gate.Modules) == 0 {
 		c.Gate.Modules = append(append([]string{}, result.Checked.Modules...), prefixedAll("new:", result.Checked.New)...)
 	}
+	if result.Checked != nil && c.Gate != nil && len(c.Gate.Dependents) == 0 {
+		c.Gate.Dependents = result.Checked.Dependents
+	}
 	for _, l := range []*link.CheckLayer{c.Gate, c.RepoCheck} {
 		if l != nil && l.Verdict == "" {
 			l.Verdict = "error"
diff --git a/cmd/mesh-controller/checks_test.go b/cmd/mesh-controller/checks_test.go
index f60f1b7..2aee808 100644
--- a/cmd/mesh-controller/checks_test.go
+++ b/cmd/mesh-controller/checks_test.go
@@ -44,7 +44,7 @@ func TestThePullRequestIsMappedOntoTheModuleGraph(t *testing.T) {
 		{"a file no module's build reads touches no module (issue 280)",
 			pull("novox", "mesh-catalog", "main", []string{"merge-check.sh", "README.md"}), "", "", "", true, ""},
 		{"files the announcer could not list: everything built from it",
-			link.PullUpdated{Owner: "novox", Repo: "mesh-catalog", Base: "main", PathsTruncated: true,
+			link.PullUpdated{Owner: "novox", Repo: "mesh-catalog", Base: "main", Commit: "abc", PathsTruncated: true,
 				Paths: []string{"README.md"}}, "gitea,keycloak,nats", "",
 			"modules/gitea/module.json,modules/keycloak/module.json,modules/nats/module.json", true, ""},
 		{"a new module, said by the head", pull("novox", "mesh-catalog", "main",
@@ -67,7 +67,7 @@ func TestThePullRequestIsMappedOntoTheModuleGraph(t *testing.T) {
 		{"a repository adding a module at its root", pull("someone", "newapp", "main", []string{"module.json", "x.js"}),
 			"", ".", "module.json", true, ""},
 	} {
-		s := pullScope(c.p, entries, nil)
+		s := pullScope(c.p, entries, nil, nil)
 		got := []string{strings.Join(s.Modules, ","), strings.Join(s.New, ","), strings.Join(s.Manifests, ",")}
 		want := []string{c.modules, c.new, c.manifest}
 		for i, what := range []string{"modules", "new", "manifests"} {
@@ -88,7 +88,7 @@ func TestThePullRequestIsMappedOntoTheModuleGraph(t *testing.T) {
 func TestAPullRequestTouchesWhatPackagesItsRepository(t *testing.T) {
 	entries := []inventory.Entry{fromRepo("node-tools", "http://forge.internal:20000/novox/mesh-tools.git", "node-tools")}
 	read := map[string][]inventory.ReadRepository{"node-tools": {{Repository: "http://forge.internal:20000/novox/mesh-sdk.git"}}}
-	s := pullScope(link.PullUpdated{Owner: "novox", Repo: "mesh-sdk", Base: "main", Paths: []string{"go/x.go"}}, entries, read)
+	s := pullScope(link.PullUpdated{Owner: "novox", Repo: "mesh-sdk", Base: "main", Commit: "abc", Paths: []string{"go/x.go"}}, entries, read, nil)
 	if strings.Join(s.Modules, ",") != "node-tools" || len(s.Manifests) != 0 {
 		t.Fatalf("a change to what node-tools packages touched %v (manifests %v)", s.Modules, s.Manifests)
 	}
@@ -115,3 +115,57 @@ func TestAChecksLayersAreEachSaidAndAnErrorIsNeverAPass(t *testing.T) {
 		t.Fatalf("the layers said %+v / %+v", c.Gate, c.RepoCheck)
 	}
 }
+
+// **The check asks the planner, never a mapping of its own** (novox/hq ADR 0238): what a pull request
+// reaches is reachOfMerge's answer — the same that plans a merge — so a file at the root touches no
+// module in both, and what stands on a touched module is named as its dependents in both.
+func TestAPullRequestReachesWhatAMergeOfItWouldPlan(t *testing.T) {
+	const catalogue = "http://forge.internal:20000/novox/mesh-catalog.git"
+	nats := fromRepo("nats", catalogue, "modules/nats")
+	nats.Source.BuiltFrom = "old"
+	gitea := fromRepo("gitea", catalogue, "modules/gitea")
+	gitea.Source.BuiltFrom = "old"
+	tools := fromRepo("node-tools", "http://forge.internal:20000/novox/mesh-tools.git", "node-tools")
+	entries := []inventory.Entry{nats, gitea, tools}
+	// node-tools stands on the bus's image; a code edge, so a plan takes it along.
+	edges := []inventory.Edge{{From: "node-tools", To: "nats", Kind: inventory.EdgeStandsOn}}
+	read := map[string][]inventory.ReadRepository{}
+
+	for _, c := range []struct {
+		what              string
+		paths             []string
+		moved, dependents string
+		width             int
+		unread            string
+	}{
+		{"a file at the root, read by no build", []string{"merge-check.sh"}, "", "", 0, "merge-check.sh"},
+		{"the bus's own directory", []string{"modules/nats/Dockerfile"}, "nats", "node-tools", 2, ""},
+		{"both, and a README", []string{"modules/gitea/index.ts", "modules/nats/x", "README.md"}, "gitea,nats", "node-tools", 3, "README.md"},
+	} {
+		p := link.PullUpdated{Owner: "novox", Repo: "mesh-catalog", Base: "main", Commit: "head", Paths: c.paths}
+		s := pullScope(p, entries, read, edges)
+		m := link.SourceMoved{Owner: "novox", Repo: "mesh-catalog", Base: "main", Commit: "head", Paths: c.paths}
+		r := reachOfMerge(m, entries, read, edges)
+		if got := strings.Join(s.Modules, ","); got != c.moved || got != strings.Join(r.Moved(), ",") {
+			t.Errorf("%s: the check reaches %q, the planner %v, wanted %q", c.what, got, r.Moved(), c.moved)
+		}
+		if got := strings.Join(s.Dependents, ","); got != c.dependents {
+			t.Errorf("%s: dependents %q, wanted %q", c.what, got, c.dependents)
+		}
+		if s.Width != c.width || s.Width != len(r.Plan.Modules) {
+			t.Errorf("%s: a merge would build %d, the planner says %d, wanted %d", c.what, s.Width, len(r.Plan.Modules), c.width)
+		}
+		if got := strings.Join(s.Unread, ","); got != c.unread {
+			t.Errorf("%s: unread %q, wanted %q", c.what, got, c.unread)
+		}
+	}
+
+	// A repository whose build another module's recipe packages: that module is reached through the
+	// planner's `read`, and what stands on it after it.
+	read["gitea"] = []inventory.ReadRepository{{Repository: "http://forge.internal:20000/novox/mesh-sdk.git"}}
+	s := pullScope(link.PullUpdated{Owner: "novox", Repo: "mesh-sdk", Base: "main", Commit: "head",
+		Paths: []string{"src/index.ts"}}, entries, read, edges)
+	if strings.Join(s.Modules, ",") != "gitea" || len(s.Manifests) != 0 {
+		t.Fatalf("a change to the source gitea packages reaches %v (manifests %v)", s.Modules, s.Manifests)
+	}
+}
diff --git a/cmd/mesh-controller/merge_gate.go b/cmd/mesh-controller/merge_gate.go
index 266fb5c..4e6b0fb 100644
--- a/cmd/mesh-controller/merge_gate.go
+++ b/cmd/mesh-controller/merge_gate.go
@@ -206,9 +206,25 @@ func judgeChange(ctx context.Context, in mergeCheckInput) (mergeVerdict, error)
 	}
 	change := base
 	sources := sourcesOfFacts(in.facts)
+	// **What the change moves is the planner's answer** (reachOfMerge, novox/hq ADR 0238), asked of the
+	// snapshot as if the change were merged: the definitions composed with the change are those of the
+	// modules a merge of it would rebuild, and of the modules it adds — not every definition in the tree,
+	// which may differ from what the mesh holds for reasons that are not this change's (a module pinned
+	// at an older commit, a main the mesh has not built yet).
+	var reach *mergeReach
+	if in.repository != "" && len(in.changed) > 0 {
+		r, err := reachOfChange(in.facts, in.repository, in.changed, in.tree)
+		if err != nil {
+			v.Notes = append(v.Notes, "what a merge of the change would rebuild could not be worked out, so every "+
+				"definition in its tree is judged: "+err.Error())
+		} else {
+			reach = &r
+		}
+	}
 	if in.tree != "" {
 		var failures []string
-		change, failures, err = shelfWithChange(base, sources, in.facts, in.repository, in.tree, v.Modules)
+		change, failures, err = shelfWithChange(base, sources, in.facts, in.repository, in.tree, v.Modules,
+			scopeOfReach(reach, in.repository))
 		if err != nil {
 			return v, err
 		}
@@ -306,20 +322,16 @@ func judgeChange(ctx context.Context, in mergeCheckInput) (mergeVerdict, error)
 		}
 	}
 
-	if in.repository != "" && len(in.changed) > 0 {
-		w, err := rebuildWidth(in.facts, in.repository, in.changed, in.tree)
-		if err != nil {
-			v.Notes = append(v.Notes, "the width of the rebuild could not be worked out: "+err.Error())
-		} else {
-			v.Width = &w
-			if len(w.Unread) > 0 {
-				v.Notes = append(v.Notes, fmt.Sprintf("%s read by no module's build, and rebuild nothing (issue 280)",
-					readableList(w.Unread)))
-			}
-			if len(w.Modules) > wideRebuild {
-				v.Warnings = append(v.Warnings, fmt.Sprintf("a merge rebuilds %d module(s) in %d tier(s)",
-					len(w.Modules), w.Tiers))
-			}
+	if reach != nil {
+		w := widthOf(*reach)
+		v.Width = &w
+		if len(w.Unread) > 0 {
+			v.Notes = append(v.Notes, fmt.Sprintf("%s read by no module's build, and rebuild nothing (issue 280)",
+				readableList(w.Unread)))
+		}
+		if len(w.Modules) > wideRebuild {
+			v.Warnings = append(v.Warnings, fmt.Sprintf("a merge rebuilds %d module(s) in %d tier(s)",
+				len(w.Modules), w.Tiers))
 		}
 	}
 
@@ -443,8 +455,12 @@ var ignoredInTree = map[string]bool{".git": true, "vendor": true, "node_modules"
 // read by this controller's strict parser — the one the mesh runs, for a change to a catalogue — resolved
 // with stand-in builds, and read again as registration reads a built one. A module the repository held
 // and the tree no longer has is removed. Answers the shelf and what the tree itself fails.
+//
+// `scope` is the directories of the modules a merge of the change would rebuild or add, as the planner says
+// (scopeOfReach); a definition elsewhere in the tree is left as the mesh holds it. Nil judges every one.
 func shelfWithChange(base map[string]catalogue.Manifest, sources map[string]inventory.Source, f snapshot.Facts,
-	repository, tree string, moved map[string]string) (map[string]catalogue.Manifest, []string, error) {
+	repository, tree string, moved map[string]string, scope map[string]bool) (map[string]catalogue.Manifest, []string, error) {
+	inScope := func(dir string) bool { return scope == nil || scope[dir] }
 	out := make(map[string]catalogue.Manifest, len(base))
 	for k, m := range base {
 		out[k] = m
@@ -477,16 +493,23 @@ func shelfWithChange(base map[string]catalogue.Manifest, sources map[string]inve
 		}
 		m, err := catalogue.ParseManifest(raw)
 		if err != nil {
-			failures = append(failures, fmt.Sprintf("%s: the controller judging this (%s) refuses it — %s",
-				orRoot(dir), version, oneLine(err.Error())))
+			if inScope(dir) {
+				failures = append(failures, fmt.Sprintf("%s: the controller judging this (%s) refuses it — %s",
+					orRoot(dir), version, oneLine(err.Error())))
+			}
 			return nil
 		}
 		if was, twice := found[m.Module]; twice {
-			failures = append(failures, fmt.Sprintf("%s and %s both define %s: two definitions of one module",
-				orRoot(was), orRoot(dir), m.Module))
+			if inScope(dir) || inScope(was) {
+				failures = append(failures, fmt.Sprintf("%s and %s both define %s: two definitions of one module",
+					orRoot(was), orRoot(dir), m.Module))
+			}
 			return nil
 		}
 		found[m.Module] = dir
+		if !inScope(dir) {
+			return nil
+		}
 		if s, held := sources[m.Module]; held && s.Repository != "" && !sameRepository(s.Repository,
 			link.SourceMoved{Owner: ownerOf(repository), Repo: repoOf(repository)}) {
 			failures = append(failures, fmt.Sprintf("%s defines %s, which the mesh builds from %s: two definitions "+
@@ -538,6 +561,9 @@ func shelfWithChange(base map[string]catalogue.Manifest, sources map[string]inve
 		if _, still := found[name]; still {
 			continue
 		}
+		if !inScope(strings.Trim(s.Path, "/")) {
+			continue
+		}
 		delete(out, name)
 		moved[name] = "removed"
 		if on := running[name]; len(on) > 0 {
@@ -961,25 +987,32 @@ func standInKey() (string, error) {
 	return base64.StdEncoding.EncodeToString(k.PublicKey().Bytes()), nil
 }
 
-// mergeWidth is what a merge of the change would rebuild, computed the way the merge handler computes
-// it, from the modules, sources and edges the snapshot carries.
-func rebuildWidth(f snapshot.Facts, repository string, paths []string, tree string) (mergeWidthOf, error) {
+// reachOfChange is what a merge of the change would move and build — **the planner's own answer**
+// (reachOfMerge), asked of the modules, sources, reads and edges the snapshot carries, never a mapping of
+// the gate's own: what a merge touches and what follows it are decided in one place, so the gate and the
+// plan a merge makes cannot disagree (novox/hq ADR 0238).
+func reachOfChange(f snapshot.Facts, repository string, paths []string, tree string) (mergeReach, error) {
 	owner, repo, found := strings.Cut(repository, "/")
 	if !found {
-		return mergeWidthOf{}, fmt.Errorf("%q is not owner/repository", repository)
+		return mergeReach{}, fmt.Errorf("%q is not owner/repository", repository)
 	}
 	m := link.SourceMoved{Owner: owner, Repo: repo, Base: "main", Commit: "gate", Paths: paths}
 	// Which changed directories hold a module, read from the change's tree as the forge's announcer reads
-	// them at the merge commit (issue 278): a file inside one is that module's business, held or not.
+	// them at the head (issue 278): what the planner is told of a module the mesh does not hold yet.
 	if tree != "" {
 		m.ModuleDirs, m.ModuleDirsSaid = moduleDirsIn(tree, paths), true
+		for _, p := range paths {
+			if _, err := os.Stat(filepath.Join(tree, p)); os.IsNotExist(err) {
+				m.Removed = append(m.Removed, p)
+			}
+		}
 	}
 	var entries []inventory.Entry
 	read := map[string][]inventory.ReadRepository{}
 	for _, mod := range f.Modules {
 		var manifest catalogue.Manifest
 		if err := json.Unmarshal(mod.Manifest, &manifest); err != nil {
-			return mergeWidthOf{}, err
+			return mergeReach{}, err
 		}
 		entries = append(entries, inventory.Entry{Manifest: manifest, Provided: mod.Provided,
 			Source: inventory.Source{Repository: mod.Repository, Path: mod.Path, BuiltFrom: mod.Commit}})
@@ -991,52 +1024,39 @@ func rebuildWidth(f snapshot.Facts, repository string, paths []string, tree stri
 	for _, e := range f.Edges {
 		edges = append(edges, inventory.Edge{From: e.From, To: e.To, Kind: e.Kind})
 	}
-	var from []inventory.Entry
-	for _, e := range entries {
-		if !e.Provided && sourceIs(e.Source, m) {
-			from = append(from, e)
+	return reachOfMerge(m, entries, read, edges), nil
+}
+
+// widthOf is how wide the rebuild of a reach is.
+func widthOf(r mergeReach) mergeWidthOf {
+	w := mergeWidthOf{Tiers: len(r.Plan.Tiers), Unread: r.Unread}
+	for name := range r.Plan.Modules {
+		w.Modules = append(w.Modules, name)
+	}
+	sort.Strings(w.Modules)
+	return w
+}
+
+// scopeOfReach is the directories, in the change's repository, of the modules a reach rebuilds or adds;
+// nil — every definition judged — when there is no reach.
+func scopeOfReach(r *mergeReach, repository string) map[string]bool {
+	if r == nil {
+		return nil
+	}
+	scope := map[string]bool{}
+	same := link.SourceMoved{Owner: ownerOf(repository), Repo: repoOf(repository)}
+	for _, e := range append(append([]inventory.Entry{}, r.Touched...), r.Deleted...) {
+		if sameRepository(e.Source.Repository, same) {
+			scope[strings.Trim(e.Source.Path, "/")] = true
 		}
 	}
-	touched := whatTheMergeTouched(from, entries, m)
-	var names []string
-	for _, e := range touched {
-		names = append(names, e.Manifest.Module)
-	}
-	for _, e := range entries {
-		if readsFrom(read[e.Manifest.Module], m) && !slices.Contains(names, e.Manifest.Module) {
-			names = append(names, e.Manifest.Module)
+	for _, d := range r.Added {
+		if d == "." {
+			d = ""
 		}
+		scope[d] = true
 	}
-	w := mergeWidthOf{}
-	if len(names) > 0 {
-		p := planOfMerge(m, names, edges)
-		w.Tiers = len(p.Tiers)
-		for name := range p.Modules {
-			w.Modules = append(w.Modules, name)
-		}
-		sort.Strings(w.Modules)
-	}
-	// The paths no build reads: in no directory of a module the mesh holds from this repository, or one
-	// the tree holds.
-	var dirs []string
-	for _, e := range from {
-		if d := strings.Trim(e.Source.Path, "/"); d != "" {
-			dirs = append(dirs, d+"/")
-		}
-	}
-	for _, d := range m.ModuleDirs {
-		dirs = append(dirs, strings.Trim(d, "/")+"/")
-	}
-	for _, p := range paths {
-		inModule := false
-		for _, d := range dirs {
-			inModule = inModule || strings.HasPrefix(p, d)
-		}
-		if !inModule && len(dirs) > 0 {
-			w.Unread = append(w.Unread, p)
-		}
-	}
-	return w, nil
+	return scope
 }
 
 // moduleDirsIn are the directories above the changed paths, never the root, that hold a module.json in
diff --git a/cmd/mesh-controller/release_plan.go b/cmd/mesh-controller/release_plan.go
index 2e3e611..0ad9255 100644
--- a/cmd/mesh-controller/release_plan.go
+++ b/cmd/mesh-controller/release_plan.go
@@ -1357,18 +1357,20 @@ func planWhatIf(ctx context.Context, inv *inventory.Inventory, repository string
 	for _, name := range modules {
 		named[name] = true
 	}
-	for _, e := range entries {
-		switch {
-		case named[e.Manifest.Module]:
-			from = append(from, e)
-		case len(named) == 0 && sourceIs(e.Source, m):
-			from = append(from, e)
-		case readsFrom(read[e.Manifest.Module], m):
-			packaging = append(packaging, e)
-		}
-	}
 	if len(named) == 0 {
-		from = whatTheMergeTouched(from, entries, m)
+		// The changed files: the planner's own answer, as the merge handler, the merge gate and a pull
+		// request's check ask it (novox/hq ADR 0238).
+		r := reachOfMerge(m, entries, read, nil)
+		from, packaging = append(append([]inventory.Entry{}, r.Touched...), r.Deleted...), r.Packaging
+	} else {
+		for _, e := range entries {
+			switch {
+			case named[e.Manifest.Module]:
+				from = append(from, e)
+			case readsFrom(read[e.Manifest.Module], m):
+				packaging = append(packaging, e)
+			}
+		}
 	}
 	moved := append(append([]inventory.Entry{}, from...), packaging...)
 	if len(moved) == 0 {
diff --git a/cmd/mesh-controller/upgrades.go b/cmd/mesh-controller/upgrades.go
index f9094f9..5919a00 100644
--- a/cmd/mesh-controller/upgrades.go
+++ b/cmd/mesh-controller/upgrades.go
@@ -6,6 +6,7 @@ import (
 	"flag"
 	"fmt"
 	"regexp"
+	"slices"
 	"sort"
 	"strings"
 	"sync"
@@ -616,14 +617,24 @@ func lastLookAt(entries []inventory.Entry, m link.SourceMoved) time.Time {
 }
 
 // whatTheMergeTouched narrows the modules built from a repository to the ones the merge changed: **a
-// changed file touches exactly the modules whose build reads it** (novox/hq issue 280, ADR 0237 as amended).
+// changed file touches exactly the modules whose build reads it** (novox/hq issue 280, ADR 0238). It is
+// touchedBy's first answer; touchedBy is the one place the mesh maps a changed file onto its modules.
+func whatTheMergeTouched(candidates, known []inventory.Entry, m link.SourceMoved) []inventory.Entry {
+	touched, _, _ := touchedBy(candidates, known, m)
+	return touched
+}
+
+// touchedBy maps a merge's changed files onto the mesh's modules — **the one place it is done**, for the
+// merge handler, the release planner's what-if, the merge gate and a pull request's check alike (novox/hq
+// ADR 0238), so planning and gating cannot disagree about what a change touches.
 //
-// What a build reads is the module's own directory — the builder clones the repository and builds within
-// that directory alone: the manifest, the recipes, the bundles' sources, the Docker context — or the whole
-// repository for a module built from its root. A second repository a recipe packages (an artifact's
-// `context`) is read too, and that is the build record's `read`, answered by readsFrom beside this. So a
-// changed file inside a module's directory is that module's; a file in no module's directory — a script
-// at the root, a README, CI configuration, a directory of notes — is read by no build and touches nothing.
+// **A changed file touches exactly the modules whose build reads it.** What a build reads is the module's
+// own directory — the builder clones the repository and builds within that directory alone: the manifest,
+// the recipes, the bundles' sources, the Docker context — or the whole repository for a module built from
+// its root. A second repository a recipe packages (an artifact's `context`) is read too; that is the build
+// record's `read`, answered by readsFrom in mergeCandidates. So a changed file inside a module's directory
+// is that module's; a file in no module's directory — a script at the root, a README, CI configuration —
+// is read by no build and touches nothing: it is answered as `unread`.
 //
 // **It used to be read as shared code**, rebuilding everything built from the repository, on the theory
 // that a root file might be a build input (04-ISSUES/131). No build reads one: the theory cost a rebuild
@@ -631,23 +642,131 @@ func lastLookAt(entries []inventory.Entry, m link.SourceMoved) time.Time {
 // held by no machine (278) and a new module's directory (252), each patched as an exception to a rule that
 // was wrong. Rebuilding too much is not the safe direction when every rebuild is a rollout.
 //
-// Nothing said about the files, or not all of them said, is still everything: what is not known cannot be
-// narrowed. `known` is kept for the callers; which directories hold a module is no longer needed to read a
-// change, because a file is a module's only by being inside it.
-func whatTheMergeTouched(candidates, known []inventory.Entry, m link.SourceMoved) []inventory.Entry {
-	_ = known
-	if len(m.Paths) == 0 || m.PathsTruncated {
-		return candidates
-	}
-	var out []inventory.Entry
-	for _, e := range candidates {
-		if strings.Trim(e.Source.Path, "/") == "" || anyInside(m.Paths, e.Source.Path) {
-			out = append(out, e)
+// `added` is the directories the change holds a module in that no module of this repository is known
+// from — said by the announcer at the head (issue 278), or a module.json among the changed files — `.`
+// for the root: a new module, which a check judges before it merges and a merge does not build.
+//
+// Nothing said about the files, or not all of them said, is still everything: what is not known cannot
+// be narrowed.
+func touchedBy(candidates, known []inventory.Entry, m link.SourceMoved) (touched []inventory.Entry, added, unread []string) {
+	knownDirs := map[string]bool{}
+	for _, e := range known {
+		if !e.Provided && sameRepository(e.Source.Repository, m) {
+			knownDirs[strings.Trim(e.Source.Path, "/")] = true
 		}
 	}
+	newDir := map[string]bool{}
+	for _, d := range saidModuleDirs(m) {
+		if !knownDirs[d] {
+			newDir[d] = true
+		}
+	}
+	for _, p := range m.Paths {
+		p = strings.Trim(p, "/")
+		if p != moduleManifestFile && !strings.HasSuffix(p, "/"+moduleManifestFile) {
+			continue
+		}
+		d := strings.TrimSuffix(strings.TrimSuffix(p, moduleManifestFile), "/")
+		if !knownDirs[d] {
+			if d == "" {
+				d = "."
+			}
+			newDir[d] = true
+		}
+	}
+	for d := range newDir {
+		added = append(added, d)
+	}
+	sort.Strings(added)
+
+	if len(m.Paths) == 0 || m.PathsTruncated {
+		return candidates, added, nil
+	}
+	for _, e := range candidates {
+		if strings.Trim(e.Source.Path, "/") == "" || anyInside(m.Paths, e.Source.Path) {
+			touched = append(touched, e)
+		}
+	}
+	for _, p := range m.Paths {
+		read := newDir["."]
+		for _, e := range candidates {
+			read = read || strings.Trim(e.Source.Path, "/") == "" || inside(p, e.Source.Path)
+		}
+		for d := range newDir {
+			read = read || inside(p, d)
+		}
+		if !read {
+			unread = append(unread, p)
+		}
+	}
+	return touched, added, unread
+}
+
+// mergeReach is what a merge of a repository's branch reaches, as the planner reckons it: the planner's
+// one answer, given to the release planner's what-if, the merge gate and a pull request's check (novox/hq
+// ADR 0238). The merge handler acts on the same pieces — mergeCandidates, touchedBy, splitDeleted,
+// planOfMerge — as it goes.
+type mergeReach struct {
+	// Touched are the modules built from the repository and branch whose build reads a changed file, and
+	// Deleted those of them whose manifest the merge removes.
+	Touched, Deleted []inventory.Entry
+	// Packaging are the modules whose build packages source from the repository.
+	Packaging []inventory.Entry
+	// Already counts the modules built from the repository that are built from this very commit.
+	Already int
+	// Added are the directories the change holds a new module in; Unread the changed files no build reads.
+	Added, Unread []string
+	// Plan is what moves and everything that follows it along the catalogue's dependencies, tiered —
+	// what a merge would build. Empty when nothing moves.
+	Plan inventory.Plan
+}
+
+// Moved are the modules the merge moves itself, by name: touched, deleted and packaging.
+func (r mergeReach) Moved() []string {
+	var out []string
+	for _, group := range [][]inventory.Entry{r.Touched, r.Deleted, r.Packaging} {
+		for _, e := range group {
+			out = append(out, e.Manifest.Module)
+		}
+	}
+	sort.Strings(out)
+	return slices.Compact(out)
+}
+
+// Dependents are the modules the plan builds after the moved ones because they stand on them.
+func (r mergeReach) Dependents() []string {
+	moved := map[string]bool{}
+	for _, name := range r.Moved() {
+		moved[name] = true
+	}
+	var out []string
+	for name := range r.Plan.Modules {
+		if !moved[name] {
+			out = append(out, name)
+		}
+	}
+	sort.Strings(out)
 	return out
 }
 
+// reachOfMerge is what a merge of these changed files into this branch would move and build, without
+// acting: the merge handler's own judgement and the release plan's dependency walk.
+func reachOfMerge(m link.SourceMoved, entries []inventory.Entry, read map[string][]inventory.ReadRepository,
+	edges []inventory.Edge) mergeReach {
+	from, packaging, already := mergeCandidates(m, entries, read)
+	touched, added, unread := touchedBy(from, entries, m)
+	kept, deleted := splitDeleted(touched, m)
+	r := mergeReach{Touched: kept, Deleted: deleted, Packaging: packaging, Already: already, Added: added, Unread: unread}
+	var building []string
+	for _, e := range append(append([]inventory.Entry{}, kept...), packaging...) {
+		building = append(building, e.Manifest.Module)
+	}
+	if len(building) > 0 {
+		r.Plan = planOfMerge(m, building, edges)
+	}
+	return r
+}
+
 // saidModuleDirs is the directories the announcer says hold a module at the merge commit (novox/hq
 // issue 278): a changed file in one of them is that module's business and nobody else's — the
 // catalogue's reference module, held by no machine, whose code a merge touched beside its manifest,
@@ -674,16 +793,6 @@ func inside(path, dir string) bool {
 	return path == dir || strings.HasPrefix(path, dir+"/")
 }
 
-// insideAny is whether a changed file is in any of these directories.
-func insideAny(path string, dirs []string) bool {
-	for _, dir := range dirs {
-		if inside(path, dir) {
-			return true
-		}
-	}
-	return false
-}
-
 // anyInside is whether any of these changed files is in a directory.
 func anyInside(paths []string, dir string) bool {
 	for _, p := range paths {
diff --git a/internal/link/build.go b/internal/link/build.go
index 6557d3e..9203b2f 100644
--- a/internal/link/build.go
+++ b/internal/link/build.go
@@ -111,6 +111,9 @@ type CheckRequest struct {
 	// the gate runs**, not the repository. With neither, only the repository's own merge-check.sh runs.
 	Modules []string `json:"modules,omitempty"`
 	New     []string `json:"new,omitempty"`
+	// Dependents are the modules a merge would build after Modules because they stand on them: the
+	// planner's dependency walk, said on the pull request.
+	Dependents []string `json:"dependents,omitempty"`
 	// Manifests are the touched modules' manifests in the change's tree, by path from its root: what the
 	// gate puts through `module check`.
 	Manifests []string `json:"manifests,omitempty"`
diff --git a/internal/link/events.go b/internal/link/events.go
index e97e50b..a7a6fcb 100644
--- a/internal/link/events.go
+++ b/internal/link/events.go
@@ -221,6 +221,9 @@ type PullUpdated struct {
 	// Paths are the files the pull request changes; PathsTruncated says there were more.
 	Paths          []string `json:"paths,omitempty"`
 	PathsTruncated bool     `json:"paths_truncated,omitempty"`
+	// Removed are the files among Paths the change deletes: a module whose manifest is among them is one
+	// the merge would remove.
+	Removed []string `json:"removed,omitempty"`
 	// ModuleDirs are the directories above the changed files that hold a `module.json` at the head, read
 	// as the merge announcer reads them at a merge commit (issue 278); ModuleDirsSaid says it looked.
 	// What the controller finds a module the graph does not hold yet with: a directory the change adds a
@@ -263,8 +266,10 @@ type CheckLayer struct {
 	Verdict string `json:"verdict"`
 	Summary string `json:"summary"`
 	// Modules are, for the gate, the modules of the mesh's graph the change touches — `new:<dir>` for a
-	// module the graph does not hold yet.
-	Modules []string `json:"modules,omitempty"`
+	// module the graph does not hold yet; Dependents those a merge would build after them because they
+	// stand on them — the planner's own answer.
+	Modules    []string `json:"modules,omitempty"`
+	Dependents []string `json:"dependents,omitempty"`
 }
 
 type Upgraded struct {
diff --git a/mesh-controller b/mesh-controller
index 721ae36..5ea822b 100755
Binary files a/mesh-controller and b/mesh-controller differ