Say a machine waiting for its push as waiting, not uncomposable (hq issue 275)

Between assign and push a module's own secrets are not made yet; D1 composed
without making them and raised an urgent 'nothing can be sent' that the next
push resolved silently. D1 now composes as the push would (Foreseeing): a
secret the push makes gets a stand-in and is named, one the push is refused on
is refused with the push's words. Waiting is said only past 30 minutes, as a
warning. D3 and D13 expect a holder only once its machine was sent it and
reported or had ten minutes to.

cmd/mesh-controller/awaiting_push_test.go

@@ -0,0 +1,281 @@
+package main
+
+import (
+	"errors"
+	"strings"
+	"testing"
+	"time"
+
+	"github.com/novox/mesh-controller/internal/catalogue"
+	"github.com/novox/mesh-controller/internal/conditions"
+	"github.com/novox/mesh-controller/internal/inventory"
+	"github.com/novox/mesh-controller/internal/overlay"
+)
+
+// Between `assign` and `push` a module's own secrets are not made yet: the push makes them. D1 composed
+// the machine's declaration without making anything, failed on the missing secret, and raised an urgent
+// "nothing can be sent to <machine>" — seen live on 2026-10-06, a desktop notification for a machine
+// the next push sent to without a word (novox/hq issue 275). D1 now composes as the push would, with a
+// stand-in for what the push makes: pending, not broken, and said only past a bound, as a warning.
+
+// aKeeper is a module with an own secret the mesh makes — a backup repository's password.
+func aKeeper() catalogue.Manifest {
+	return catalogue.Manifest{Module: "keeper", Version: "1",
+		OwnSecrets: catalogue.OwnSecrets{"repository": {Path: "/var/lib/mesh/keeper/repository"}},
+		Resources: []map[string]any{
+			{"id": "state", "type": "directory", "path": "/var/lib/mesh/keeper", "mode": "0700"},
+		}}
+}
+
+// pushedBy records a send to a machine as a push does — composed on the send path, so its own secrets
+// are made — without a bus to carry it.
+func pushedBy(t *testing.T, open *stores, node string) string {
+	t.Helper()
+	ctx := t.Context()
+	plan, settings, err := planFor(ctx, open, node)
+	if err != nil {
+		t.Fatal(err)
+	}
+	declared, err := declarationFor(ctx, open, node, plan, settings)
+	if err != nil {
+		t.Fatal(err)
+	}
+	body, err := declared.Body()
+	if err != nil {
+		t.Fatal(err)
+	}
+	record, err := open.inventory.NodeByName(ctx, node)
+	if err != nil {
+		t.Fatal(err)
+	}
+	digest := digestOf(body)
+	if err := open.inventory.RecordSent(ctx, record.ID, digest, declared.Builds); err != nil {
+		t.Fatal(err)
+	}
+	return digest
+}
+
+// pushedAndApplied is pushedBy, and the machine reporting it applied that declaration.
+func pushedAndApplied(t *testing.T, open *stores, node string) {
+	t.Helper()
+	digest := pushedBy(t, open, node)
+	record, err := open.inventory.NodeByName(t.Context(), node)
+	if err != nil {
+		t.Fatal(err)
+	}
+	if _, err := open.inventory.RecordDoing(t.Context(), record.ID, inventory.Doing{
+		Outcome: inventory.OutcomeApplied, Declared: digest}); err != nil {
+		t.Fatal(err)
+	}
+}
+
+// d1 runs D1 once.
+func d1(t *testing.T, open *stores) []conditions.Observation {
+	t.Helper()
+	got, err := probeDeclarations(t.Context(), &doctor{open: open})
+	if err != nil {
+		t.Fatal(err)
+	}
+	return got
+}
+
+// **THE WINDOW, REPRODUCED**: assigned and not pushed, a module whose own secret the push makes is
+// waiting, not uncomposable; past the bound it is a warning naming what the push makes; pushed, nothing.
+func TestAModuleAssignedAndNotPushedIsAwaitingAPushNotUncomposable(t *testing.T) {
+	open := aMesh(t)
+	ctx := t.Context()
+	register(t, open, aKeeper())
+	pushedBy(t, open, "laptop") // the machine was pushed before; then the module is assigned
+	if _, err := assign(ctx, open, "laptop", "keeper"); err != nil {
+		t.Fatal(err)
+	}
+
+	// The read the rest of the mesh asks still refuses it, with the composer's typed error: nothing
+	// can be compared about a secret that does not exist (status), and nothing here string-matches.
+	plan, settings, err := planFor(ctx, open, "laptop")
+	if err != nil {
+		t.Fatal(err)
+	}
+	gens, err := generators(ctx, open)
+	if err != nil {
+		t.Fatal(err)
+	}
+	_, err = declarationWith(ctx, open, "laptop", plan, settings, gens, Reading)
+	var notMade *catalogue.NotMadeError
+	if !errors.As(err, &notMade) || notMade.Module != "keeper" || notMade.Name != "repository" {
+		t.Fatalf("a read composition did not say which secret is not made, typed: %v", err)
+	}
+	// Foreseen, it composes, names what the push makes, and made nothing.
+	foreseen, err := declarationWith(ctx, open, "laptop", plan, settings, gens, Foreseeing)
+	if err != nil || len(foreseen.foreseen) != 1 || foreseen.foreseen[0] != "keeper/repository" {
+		t.Fatalf("foreseen: %v %v", foreseen.foreseen, err)
+	}
+	if _, held, err := open.inventory.ModuleSecretIfIssued(ctx, "laptop", "keeper", "repository"); err != nil || held {
+		t.Fatalf("asking ahead of the push made the secret (held %v, %v)", held, err)
+	}
+
+	// Within the bound: nothing at all — no urgent, no warning, nobody notified.
+	if got := d1(t, open); len(got) != 0 {
+		t.Fatalf("a machine waiting for a push raised %+v", got)
+	}
+
+	// Past the bound: a warning, not urgent, saying what the push will make.
+	before := awaitingPushBound
+	awaitingPushBound = -time.Minute
+	t.Cleanup(func() { awaitingPushBound = before })
+	got := d1(t, open)
+	if len(got) != 1 || got[0].Key() != "machine.laptop.awaiting-push" || got[0].Severity != conditions.Warning ||
+		!strings.Contains(got[0].Summary, "keeper/repository") || !strings.Contains(got[0].Summary, "push laptop") {
+		t.Fatalf("a machine left un-pushed past the bound: %+v", got)
+	}
+
+	// Pushed: the secret is made and D1 says nothing.
+	pushedBy(t, open, "laptop")
+	if got := d1(t, open); len(got) != 0 {
+		t.Fatalf("a pushed machine still raised %+v", got)
+	}
+}
+
+// **A REAL FAILURE IS STILL URGENT**: a secret the push would be refused on is not one it will make.
+// A bus credential nobody issued (issue 203) fails the push, so D1 says it — urgent, in the push's words.
+func TestASecretThePushCannotMakeIsStillUncomposable(t *testing.T) {
+	open := aMesh(t)
+	ctx := t.Context()
+	register(t, open, aTalker())
+	if _, err := assign(ctx, open, "laptop", "talker"); err != nil {
+		t.Fatal(err)
+	}
+	got := d1(t, open)
+	if len(got) != 1 || got[0].Key() != "machine.laptop.uncomposable" || got[0].Severity != conditions.Urgent ||
+		!strings.Contains(got[0].Summary, "module issue talker --node laptop") {
+		t.Fatalf("a push that will be refused was not said urgently: %+v", got)
+	}
+
+	// And a machine whose composition fails for anything else, with a secret waiting beside it, is
+	// uncomposable for that — the stand-in hides nothing.
+	register(t, open, aKeeper())
+	if _, err := assign(ctx, open, "anchor", "keeper"); err != nil {
+		t.Fatal(err)
+	}
+	one, two := rivals()
+	register(t, open, one)
+	register(t, open, two)
+	_, _ = assign(ctx, open, "anchor", "rival-one")
+	_, _ = assign(ctx, open, "anchor", "rival-two")
+	keys := map[string]conditions.Severity{}
+	for _, o := range d1(t, open) {
+		keys[o.Key()] = o.Severity
+	}
+	if keys["machine.anchor.uncomposable"] != conditions.Urgent {
+		t.Fatalf("a real failure beside a waiting secret: %v", keys)
+	}
+}
+
+// A given secret sealed to a key the machine no longer has is not the mesh's to make again: the push is
+// refused on it, so D1 is too.
+func TestAGivenSecretUnderAnOldKeyIsNotForeseen(t *testing.T) {
+	open := aMesh(t)
+	ctx := t.Context()
+	register(t, open, aKeeper())
+	if _, err := assign(ctx, open, "laptop", "keeper"); err != nil {
+		t.Fatal(err)
+	}
+	if err := open.inventory.AcceptSecretForModule(ctx, "laptop", "keeper", "repository", "given"); err != nil {
+		t.Fatal(err)
+	}
+	record, err := open.inventory.NodeByName(ctx, "laptop")
+	if err != nil {
+		t.Fatal(err)
+	}
+	if err := open.inventory.RecordSealingKey(ctx, record.ID, aPublicKey(t)); err != nil {
+		t.Fatal(err)
+	}
+	got := d1(t, open)
+	if len(got) != 1 || got[0].Key() != "machine.laptop.uncomposable" || !strings.Contains(got[0].Summary, "issue it again") {
+		t.Fatalf("a given secret under an old key: %+v", got)
+	}
+}
+
+// The bound is read from when the machine began waiting: the oldest assignment since its last send.
+func TestAMachineAwaitsAPushSinceItsOldestAssignmentSinceTheLastSend(t *testing.T) {
+	open := aMesh(t)
+	ctx := t.Context()
+	register(t, open, aKeeper())
+	pushedBy(t, open, "laptop")
+	sent := time.Now()
+	since, err := open.inventory.AwaitingSince(ctx, "laptop")
+	if err != nil || since.After(sent) {
+		t.Fatalf("nothing assigned since the send: waiting since %v (%v), the send was before %v", since, err, sent)
+	}
+	if _, err := assign(ctx, open, "laptop", "keeper"); err != nil {
+		t.Fatal(err)
+	}
+	since, err = open.inventory.AwaitingSince(ctx, "laptop")
+	if err != nil || since.Before(sent.Add(-time.Second)) {
+		t.Fatalf("assigned after the send: waiting since %v (%v), not from the assignment", since, err)
+	}
+}
+
+// **D3 AND D13 WAIT FOR THE SEND**: a holder is expected to answer on a machine once the machine was sent
+// it and had time to report — never between assign and push.
+func TestAHolderIsExpectedOnlyOnceSentAndReported(t *testing.T) {
+	now := time.Now()
+	sent := now.Add(-time.Minute)
+	long := now.Add(-time.Hour)
+	cases := []struct {
+		name string
+		send lastSend
+		want bool
+	}{
+		{"never sent", lastSend{}, false},
+		{"sent without it", lastSend{sent: &long, current: true, carried: map[string]string{"other": "c"}}, false},
+		{"sent with it, not reported yet", lastSend{sent: &sent, carried: map[string]string{"keeper": "c"}}, false},
+		{"sent with it and reported", lastSend{sent: &sent, current: true, carried: map[string]string{"keeper": "c"}}, true},
+		{"sent with it long ago, never reported", lastSend{sent: &long, carried: map[string]string{"keeper": "c"}}, true},
+		{"sent before builds were kept", lastSend{sent: &long, current: true}, true},
+	}
+	for _, c := range cases {
+		if got := c.send.settled("keeper", now); got != c.want {
+			t.Errorf("%s: settled %v, want %v", c.name, got, c.want)
+		}
+	}
+}
+
+// And through the stores: assigned, not in the last send; pushed and reported, carried and settled.
+func TestALastSendIsReadFromTheSendAndTheReport(t *testing.T) {
+	open := aMesh(t)
+	ctx := t.Context()
+	register(t, open, aKeeper())
+	pushedBy(t, open, "laptop")
+	if _, err := assign(ctx, open, "laptop", "keeper"); err != nil {
+		t.Fatal(err)
+	}
+	sends, err := readDeliveries(ctx, open.inventory)
+	if err != nil {
+		t.Fatal(err)
+	}
+	if sends["laptop"].settled("keeper", time.Now()) {
+		t.Fatal("a holder assigned and not pushed is expected to answer")
+	}
+	if !sends["laptop"].settled(overlay.Name, time.Now().Add(time.Hour)) {
+		t.Fatal("a module the machine was sent long ago is not expected to answer")
+	}
+	pushedBy(t, open, "laptop")
+	sends, err = readDeliveries(ctx, open.inventory)
+	if err != nil {
+		t.Fatal(err)
+	}
+	if sends["laptop"].settled("keeper", time.Now()) {
+		t.Fatal("pushed a moment ago and not reported, a holder is already expected")
+	}
+	if !sends["laptop"].settled("keeper", time.Now().Add(reportGrace+time.Minute)) {
+		t.Fatal("pushed past the grace, a holder is not expected")
+	}
+	if _, ok := sends["laptop"].carried["keeper"]; !ok {
+		t.Fatalf("the send's builds do not carry keeper: %v", sends["laptop"].carried)
+	}
+	pushedAndApplied(t, open, "laptop")
+	if sends, err = readDeliveries(ctx, open.inventory); err != nil || !sends["laptop"].settled("keeper", time.Now()) {
+		t.Fatalf("pushed and reported applied, a holder is not expected to answer (%v)", err)
+	}
+}

cmd/mesh-controller/data.go

@@ -121,15 +121,15 @@ func readHolder(raw json.RawMessage) (map[string]map[string]inventory.Measuremen
 	return out, nil
 }
 
-// declaredOn is every data item a machine's composition declares, and whether something there holds
-// node-backup to measure them.
-func declaredOn(plan catalogue.Resolution) ([]inventory.DeclaredData, bool) {
+// declaredOn is every data item a machine's composition declares, and the module there that holds
+// node-backup to measure them — empty for none.
+func declaredOn(plan catalogue.Resolution) ([]inventory.DeclaredData, string) {
 	var out []inventory.DeclaredData
-	held := false
+	held := ""
 	for _, m := range plan.Modules {
 		for _, c := range m.Claims {
 			if s, known := catalogue.SeatNamed(c.Name); known && s.Name == catalogue.BackupSeat {
-				held = true
+				held = m.Module
 			}
 		}
 		for _, it := range m.DataItems() {
@@ -166,6 +166,10 @@ func probeData(ctx context.Context, d *doctor) ([]conditions.Observation, error)
 	}
 	heard := heardMachines(d)
 	now := time.Now()
+	delivered, err := readDeliveries(ctx, open.inventory)
+	if err != nil {
+		return nil, err
+	}
 
 	type machine struct {
 		name     string
@@ -185,7 +189,11 @@ func probeData(ctx context.Context, d *doctor) ([]conditions.Observation, error)
 			// declaring nothing: retiring its data on that would be acting on an unreadable result.
 			continue
 		}
-		declared, held := declaredOn(plan)
+		declared, holder := declaredOn(plan)
+		// **A holder is asked only once its machine has been sent it and had time to report** (novox/hq
+		// issue 275): assigned and not pushed yet, it is not there to answer, and "did not say what it
+		// measured" about it was a warning for a push nobody had made yet.
+		held := holder != "" && delivered[n.Name].settled(holder, now)
 		machines = append(machines, &machine{name: n.Name, declared: declared, held: held})
 	}
 	// Every holder asked at once, as D8 asks every ban list.

cmd/mesh-controller/data_test.go

@@ -299,6 +299,10 @@ func TestNatsUnassigningIrreplaceableDataRetiresItAndAnEmptyReplacementIsUrgent(
 	if _, err := assign(ctx, open, "laptop", "house"); err != nil {
 		t.Fatal(err)
 	}
+	// Sent, and applied: a holder is asked only once it has been (novox/hq issue 275).
+	for _, node := range []string{"laptop", "anchor"} {
+		pushedAndApplied(t, open, node)
+	}
 
 	conn := onATestBus(t)
 	js, err := broker.Dial(os.Getenv("MESH_TEST_NATS"))

cmd/mesh-controller/doctor.go

@@ -75,7 +75,8 @@ type probe struct {
 // probe added to a design is a row added here.
 var probeRegistry = []probe{
 	{ID: "D1", Asserts: "every machine's declaration composes, and passes the node-engine's validation",
-		From: "issues 236, 263", Kind: "declaration-refused", Phase: 1, run: probeDeclarations},
+		From: "issues 236, 263, 275", Kind: "declaration-refused", Raises: []string{kindAwaitingPush}, Phase: 1,
+		run: probeDeclarations},
 	{ID: "D2", Asserts: "every holder of the mesh's resolver answers a machine name for IPv4, and NODATA for IPv6",
 		From: "issue 262", Kind: "resolver-wrong", Phase: 1, run: probeResolvers},
 	{ID: "D3", Asserts: "every seat on record that serves verbs has a live holder that answers, on every " +

cmd/mesh-controller/plan.go

@@ -378,13 +378,19 @@ func declarationFor(ctx context.Context, open *stores, node string,
 // So the mesh chooses a port when it commits to sending one, and every other caller reads what
 // was chosen. A module with nothing assigned yet has never been sent, which is exactly what a
 // machine "waiting" means — the read needs no number to be right about that.
-type Choosing bool
+type Choosing int
 
 const (
-	// Allocating is the send path: what is not assigned yet is assigned now and kept.
-	Allocating Choosing = true
 	// Reading is every question: what is assigned is used, and nothing is created.
-	Reading Choosing = false
+	Reading Choosing = iota
+	// Allocating is the send path: what is not assigned yet is assigned now and kept.
+	Allocating
+	// Foreseeing is Reading, asked ahead of a send (the self-check's D1, novox/hq issue 275): nothing
+	// is created, and an own secret the next send WOULD make is composed with a stand-in and named
+	// (sendable.foreseen) rather than failing the composition — while one the send would be refused
+	// (a bus credential nobody issued, a given secret under an old key) is refused here as it would
+	// be there. Never sent: the stand-in is not a sealed value.
+	Foreseeing
 )
 
 func declarationWith(ctx context.Context, open *stores, node string,
@@ -406,7 +412,7 @@ func declarationWith(ctx context.Context, open *stores, node string,
 	out := sendable{Resources: composed.Resources, Adoption: adoption,
 		Received: composed.Received, Mesh: with.Mesh, BusUsers: with.BusUsers,
 		LeftOut: sortedKeysOf(composed.LeftOut), leftOutWhy: composed.LeftOut, withheld: with.Withheld,
-		unbound: with.Unbound}
+		unbound: with.Unbound, foreseen: composed.Foreseen}
 	// And which build of each module it carries, for the send to record (novox/hq issue 259, ADR
 	// 0221). Read only on the send path: a question about what would be sent records nothing.
 	if choosing == Allocating {
@@ -507,6 +513,30 @@ func reportLeftOut(node string, declared sendable) {
 	}
 }
 
+// busCredentialIssued refuses an own secret called `broker` whose bus account nobody issued.
+//
+// **The broker credential is never invented here** (novox/hq issue 203). Every other own secret is
+// the mesh's to make — a password nobody else knows — but this one is an account on the bus, minted
+// by `module issue` and sealed by it; a push that made a random one would deliver a file the process
+// cannot read and report the machine applied. Refused by name, with the verb — on the send, and on
+// a question asked ahead of it (Foreseeing), so that one is never told the push will make it.
+func busCredentialIssued(ctx context.Context, inv *inventory.Inventory, node, module, name string) error {
+	if name != "broker" {
+		return nil
+	}
+	user := broker.Principal{Kind: broker.KindModule, Node: node, Module: module}.Username()
+	if _, minted, err := inv.BusUserHash(ctx, user); err != nil {
+		return err
+	} else if !minted {
+		return fmt.Errorf(
+			"%s on %s has no bus credential: nothing was issued for %s, and a push "+
+				"would seal a placeholder its process cannot read (novox/hq issue 203). "+
+				"`module issue %s --node %s`, then push again",
+			module, node, user, module, node)
+	}
+	return nil
+}
+
 // renderingFor is everything a node's declaration is composed with, and the node's record.
 func renderingFor(ctx context.Context, open *stores, node string,
 	plan catalogue.Resolution, settings catalogue.SettingsBy,
@@ -524,7 +554,7 @@ func renderingFor(ctx context.Context, open *stores, node string,
 	// consumer is told are all derived from it.
 	// What this machine was already given, for a composition that may not allocate.
 	already := map[string]map[int]int{}
-	if choosing == Reading {
+	if choosing != Allocating {
 		held, err := inv.PortsFor(ctx, node)
 		if err != nil {
 			return catalogue.Rendering{}, inventory.Node{}, err
@@ -610,6 +640,7 @@ func renderingFor(ctx context.Context, open *stores, node string,
 	// And each module's own secrets — a superuser password, an administrator, an account. Made
 	// per node, so a module running on three machines has three.
 	needed := map[string]map[string]string{}
+	foreseen := map[string]map[string]bool{}
 	for _, m := range plan.Modules {
 		for name := range m.OwnSecrets {
 			// Minted on the send path and only read on every other. Making one is an insert, and
@@ -617,27 +648,29 @@ func renderingFor(ctx context.Context, open *stores, node string,
 			var sealed string
 			var err error
 			if choosing == Allocating {
-				// **The broker credential is never invented here** (novox/hq issue 203). Every other
-				// own secret is the mesh's to make — a password nobody else knows — but this one
-				// is an account on the bus, minted by `module issue` and sealed by it; a push that
-				// made a random one would deliver a file the process cannot read and report the
-				// machine applied. Refused by name, with the verb.
-				if name == "broker" {
-					user := broker.Principal{Kind: broker.KindModule, Node: node, Module: m.Module}.Username()
-					if _, minted, err := inv.BusUserHash(ctx, user); err != nil {
-						return catalogue.Rendering{}, inventory.Node{}, err
-					} else if !minted {
-						return catalogue.Rendering{}, inventory.Node{}, fmt.Errorf(
-							"%s on %s has no bus credential: nothing was issued for %s, and a push "+
-								"would seal a placeholder its process cannot read (novox/hq issue 203). "+
-								"`module issue %s --node %s`, then push again",
-							m.Module, node, user, m.Module, node)
-					}
+				if err := busCredentialIssued(ctx, inv, node, m.Module, name); err != nil {
+					return catalogue.Rendering{}, inventory.Node{}, err
 				}
 				sealed, err = inv.SecretForModule(ctx, node, m.Module, name)
 			} else {
 				var held bool
 				sealed, held, err = inv.ModuleSecretIfIssued(ctx, node, m.Module, name)
+				if err == nil && !held && choosing == Foreseeing {
+					// Asked ahead of the send: what the send would do about it, by the send's own
+					// rules. Made by it — a stand-in, named; refused by it — refused here, the same
+					// words (novox/hq issue 275).
+					if err := busCredentialIssued(ctx, inv, node, m.Module, name); err != nil {
+						return catalogue.Rendering{}, inventory.Node{}, err
+					}
+					if err := inv.WouldMakeSecretForModule(ctx, node, m.Module, name); err != nil {
+						return catalogue.Rendering{}, inventory.Node{}, err
+					}
+					if foreseen[m.Module] == nil {
+						foreseen[m.Module] = map[string]bool{}
+					}
+					foreseen[m.Module][name] = true
+					continue
+				}
 				if err == nil && !held {
 					// Never issued, so this machine cannot be running it. Left out rather than
 					// invented: an empty string here would compose a declaration that differs
@@ -829,7 +862,7 @@ func renderingFor(ctx context.Context, open *stores, node string,
 	}
 	return catalogue.Rendering{
 		BusMembership: memberships[node],
-		Settings:      settings, Generators: gens, Grants: grants, Needed: needed, Ports: ports,
+		Settings:      settings, Generators: gens, Grants: grants, Needed: needed, Foreseen: foreseen, Ports: ports,
 		Certificate: certificate, Authority: authority, Mesh: private, Names: names,
 		Machines: machines, Zones: zones, Holders: replicas,
 		Suffix: overlay.Suffix(), MeshRange: meshRange, TunnelInterface: overlay.Interface, Accounts: accounts, Foundation: foundation,

cmd/mesh-controller/probes.go

@@ -23,6 +23,7 @@ import (
 	"github.com/novox/mesh-controller/internal/broker"
 	"github.com/novox/mesh-controller/internal/catalogue"
 	"github.com/novox/mesh-controller/internal/conditions"
+	"github.com/novox/mesh-controller/internal/inventory"
 	"github.com/novox/mesh-controller/internal/lease"
 	"github.com/novox/mesh-controller/internal/link"
 	"github.com/novox/mesh-controller/internal/overlay"
@@ -32,8 +33,25 @@ import (
 // wrong now as observations, or an error when it could not tell — never "nothing" for "could not
 // look" (ADR 0227 rule 4).
 
+// awaitingPushBound is how long a machine may have something only its next push makes — an own
+// secret of a module assigned since its last push — before that is said (novox/hq issue 275).
+var awaitingPushBound = 30 * time.Minute
+
+// kindAwaitingPush is D1's kind for a machine waiting for a push past awaitingPushBound.
+const kindAwaitingPush = "awaiting-push"
+
 // probeDeclarations is D1: every machine's declaration composes, and the node-engine's own validator
 // (mesh-host's `validate`, the package the host runs) takes it.
+//
+// **Composed as the next push would compose it, without making anything** (Foreseeing, novox/hq issue
+// 275). Between `assign` and `push` a module's own secrets are not made yet — the push makes them —
+// and a composition that only reads them failed, which raised an urgent "nothing can be sent" about a
+// machine the next push sent to without a word. So a secret the push WILL make is composed with a
+// stand-in and named; one the push would be refused on is refused here, with the push's words. A
+// machine whose declaration composes and validates with only such stand-ins is waiting for a push,
+// not broken: nothing is said until awaitingPushBound passes from when it began waiting, and then a
+// warning (`awaiting-push`) naming what the push will make — never urgent, because nothing is wrong
+// that a push does not fix.
 func probeDeclarations(ctx context.Context, d *doctor) ([]conditions.Observation, error) {
 	open := d.open
 	nodes, err := open.inventory.Nodes(ctx)
@@ -59,10 +77,11 @@ func probeDeclarations(ctx context.Context, d *doctor) ([]conditions.Observation
 		if err != nil && !unresolvable(err) {
 			return nil, fmt.Errorf("%s cannot be worked out: %w", n.Name, err)
 		}
-		var problems []string
+		var problems, foreseen []string
 		if err == nil && gensErr == nil {
 			var declared sendable
-			if declared, err = declarationWith(ctx, open, n.Name, plan, settings, gens, Reading); err == nil {
+			if declared, err = declarationWith(ctx, open, n.Name, plan, settings, gens, Foreseeing); err == nil {
+				foreseen = declared.foreseen
 				// With the order it was last sent, so the validator reads the envelope a machine is sent
 				// — its epoch included (novox/hq to-be 45 §6).
 				var serr error
@@ -94,11 +113,30 @@ func probeDeclarations(ctx context.Context, d *doctor) ([]conditions.Observation
 				Summary: fmt.Sprintf("%s's node-engine would refuse its declaration whole: %d problem(s), the first: %s",
 					n.Name, len(problems), problems[0]),
 				Said: strings.Join(problems, "; ")})
+		case len(foreseen) > 0:
+			since, err := open.inventory.AwaitingSince(ctx, n.Name)
+			if err != nil {
+				return nil, err // the store, not the machine: the probe could not run
+			}
+			if waited := time.Since(since); waited > awaitingPushBound {
+				out = append(out, awaitingPush(n.Name, foreseen, since, waited))
+			}
 		}
 	}
 	return out, nil
 }
 
+// awaitingPush is D1's warning for a machine whose declaration composes only once its next push has
+// made what it names, past awaitingPushBound (novox/hq issue 275).
+func awaitingPush(node string, foreseen []string, since time.Time, waited time.Duration) conditions.Observation {
+	made := strings.Join(foreseen, ", ")
+	return conditions.Observation{Scope: conditions.ScopeMachine, ID: node, Token: kindAwaitingPush,
+		Kind: kindAwaitingPush, Machine: node, Severity: conditions.Warning,
+		Summary: fmt.Sprintf("%s has waited %s for a push: its declaration composes once the next push makes %s — "+
+			"`push %s` sends it", node, waited.Round(time.Minute), made, node),
+		Said: fmt.Sprintf("waiting since %s; the next push makes %s", since.UTC().Format(time.RFC3339), made)}
+}
+
 // probeResolvers is D2: every holder of the mesh's resolver answers each machine's name with its
 // address for IPv4, and with no address and no error for IPv6 — NODATA, not NXDOMAIN, which musl
 // takes as final (issue 262).
@@ -221,6 +259,11 @@ func probeHolders(ctx context.Context, d *doctor) ([]conditions.Observation, err
 		return nil, err
 	}
 	heard := heardMachines(d)
+	delivered, err := readDeliveries(ctx, d.open.inventory)
+	if err != nil {
+		return nil, err
+	}
+	now := time.Now()
 	expected := map[string]map[string]bool{} // seat → machine
 	add := func(seat, node string) {
 		if expected[seat] == nil {
@@ -248,7 +291,10 @@ func probeHolders(ctx context.Context, d *doctor) ([]conditions.Observation, err
 					continue
 				}
 				for _, node := range e.On {
-					if heard[node] && (s.Scope == catalogue.ScopeNode || !onRecord) {
+					// Assigned is not there yet: a holder is expected once its machine was sent it and
+					// had time to report, never between `assign` and `push` (novox/hq issue 275).
+					if heard[node] && (s.Scope == catalogue.ScopeNode || !onRecord) &&
+						delivered[node].settled(e.Manifest.Module, now) {
 						add(s.Name, node)
 					}
 				}
@@ -277,6 +323,58 @@ func probeHolders(ctx context.Context, d *doctor) ([]conditions.Observation, err
 	return sortedFound(out), nil
 }
 
+// reportGrace is how long a machine is given, after it was sent a declaration, to apply it and report
+// before what the declaration carries is expected to answer (novox/hq issue 275).
+var reportGrace = 10 * time.Minute
+
+// lastSend is what a machine was last sent, as far as the self-check needs it: which modules the send
+// carried, when, and whether the machine has reported acting on it.
+type lastSend struct {
+	// carried is the modules its last send carried; nil when that was not kept (a send from before
+	// it was, or one by hand), and then every module is taken as carried — as before this existed.
+	carried map[string]string
+	// sent is when its current declaration went to it; nil if nothing ever did.
+	sent *time.Time
+	// current says its last report names the declaration last sent.
+	current bool
+}
+
+// settled says whether a module's holder on this machine can be asked to answer now: the machine was
+// sent a declaration carrying it, and has reported acting on that declaration or had reportGrace to.
+// A machine never sent anything holds nothing the mesh put there.
+func (d lastSend) settled(module string, now time.Time) bool {
+	if d.sent == nil {
+		return false
+	}
+	if d.carried != nil {
+		if _, in := d.carried[module]; !in {
+			return false
+		}
+	}
+	return d.current || now.Sub(*d.sent) > reportGrace
+}
+
+// readDeliveries is every machine's last send, by name, from the records a send and a report keep.
+func readDeliveries(ctx context.Context, inv *inventory.Inventory) (map[string]lastSend, error) {
+	reports, err := inv.LastReports(ctx)
+	if err != nil {
+		return nil, err
+	}
+	out := map[string]lastSend{}
+	for _, r := range reports {
+		builds, known, err := inv.SentBuilds(ctx, r.Node)
+		if err != nil {
+			return nil, err
+		}
+		d := lastSend{sent: r.Sent, current: r.Current}
+		if known {
+			d.carried = builds
+		}
+		out[r.Node] = d
+	}
+	return out, nil
+}
+
 // heardMachines is every machine within its heartbeat's bound, as the watchdogs last saw.
 func heardMachines(d *doctor) map[string]bool {
 	out := map[string]bool{}

cmd/mesh-controller/sendable.go

@@ -54,6 +54,10 @@ type sendable struct {
 	// unbound is every consumer whose credential from this machine is on record and that is bound
 	// elsewhere (novox/hq issue 274); for push and plan to say, never on the wire.
 	unbound []catalogue.Unbound
+	// foreseen is every own secret composed with a stand-in, as `module/name`: what the next send will
+	// make (Foreseeing, novox/hq issue 275). Never on the wire, and a declaration that has any is never
+	// sent.
+	foreseen []string
 	// Builds is the build of each module this declaration carries — module to the commit its build
 	// was made from — recorded with the send and never on the wire (novox/hq issue 259, ADR 0221).
 	// Composed only on the send path; nil records that it is not known.